人民币汇率问题争议已久，经济学人最近在全球热点一栏中再次就此问题进行了讨论。文中不仅仅指出人民币升值对于中国的好处——降低因过度而快速的出口带来的通胀压力。但指出了人民币升值对全球经济的影响，对于美国来说，中国只是其财政赤字的主要购买者之一，单独要求中国升值人民币意义不大。关键在于其消费欲望的克制。
而且，对于从中国进口大量产品的西方国家来说，现有的人民币汇率抑制了通胀，而且使得各国央行在保持低利率的情况下，不用担心经济过热。如果人民币升值，在原料价格狂疯的今天，那么各国央行的老板坐得就没那么安稳了，等待他们的将是高通胀的压力……
如果出现高通胀的话，世界将变成什么样？经济学的原理告诉我们，通胀成本是由通胀引起资源的错误配置，如因担心通胀而投资资产而非生产性项目或减少投资……当通胀超过100%时，货币体系崩溃，人们在工作时要求立即支付工资，整个社会将陷入无序。
高通胀意味着经济过热，降温要通过一系列政策减少产出，于是产出/收入下降，导致失业……所以，我们真正担心的是降低高通胀所带来的长期而严重失业。
下边是全文的翻译：）
Many outsiders are calling on China to let its undervalued currency, the yuan, appreciate. But is that what the rest of the world really wants?
外界纷纷要求中国提高被低估的人民币汇率，但这真是这他们所想要的吗？
WITH HIS first official trip to China as America’s treasury secretary underway, there is little doubt what issue most concerns Henry Paulson. His Chinese hosts have heard the same appeal from Mr Paulson that his predecessors long expressed: let your currency appreciate, so your exports will be less competitive.
在Henry Paulson首次以美国财政部部长访华的行程中，其最关心的问题无须猜测，他的前任早就向中国提出同样的要求：提高货币汇率，你的出口竞争力才能降低。
To his credit, Mr Paulson has made a rather better public impression than some who did his job before. In a speech last week, his approach was firm but friendly, proclaiming that “The prosperity of the United States and China is tied together in the global economy”. His remarks subtly rebuked American protectionists who see Chinese growth as a threat, but he also called upon China to step up to its responsibilities as a global leader by opening its markets and making its currency regime more flexible.
Mr Paulson相信，他的公众形象要好于大多前任。在上周的演讲中就显得坚定而不失友善，他表示“在全球化过程中美国与中国的利益紧密相连”。而且他还 巧妙地向那些持中国威胁论的保守主义人士还击，但他仍然呼吁中国，开放市场以及采取更灵活的货币体制，付起全球领导者的责任。
Currency traders seemed to take his words to heart. On Thursday September 21st the yuan hit 7.923 to the dollar in intraday trading. This is the highest level yet since it was freed from its peg to the dollar in July last year. They may have been encouraged by the fact that America is not alone in urging China to reform. Concerned about the dangerous global imbalances represented by America’s ballooning current-account deficit, Rodrigo de Rato, head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has also pressed for more flexibility on the yuan.
货 币交易者看起来已把他的话牢记在心。9月21号星期三，人民币对美元的汇率在当天一度达到7.923。自从去年人民币解除紧盯美元政策后，这是人民币对美 元汇率所达到的最高点。或许他们会受此鼓舞：要求中国改革的不止美国。国际货币基金组织的总裁Rodrigo de Rato，因关心美国巨额财政赤字引发全球经济动荡，要求中国采取更灵活的人民币汇率。
China, however, has made it clear that it will not tolerate much meddling. On Sunday Zhou Xiaochuan, China’s chief central banker, told a meeting of the IMF’s International Monetary and Financial Committee that “the Fund should…respect the autonomy of member countries in choosing their own exchange-rate regime.”
尽管如此，中国还是明确表示他不会受外界干扰。星期天，央行行长周小川在IMF的国际货币与商业委员会的会议上表示，“IMF应该尊重其成员国在选择汇率制度上的自由。”
Mr Paulson’s approach, in which he emphasises the benefits to China of freeing its currency—most notably, in relieving the inflationary pressure of too-rapid export growth—is undoubtedly better received by prickly Chinese officials than the moans of America’s more obstreperous protectionist politicians. Nonetheless, his trip has shown few signs of progress on currency reform. On Wednesday he emerged from a meeting with Wu Yi, the vice premier who negotiated China’s entry into the WTO, to announce the creation of a twice yearly “China-US Economic Dialogue” between himself and Ms Wu. The Treasury’s statement made no mention of the yuan.
在Mr Paulson的演讲中，他强调了中国开放货币体系的好处，最为显著的是，降低因过度出口所带来的通货膨胀的压力，实行更灵活的人民币汇率体系，对于中国 官员来说，比起美国的保守主义政治家的呻吟更有意义。尽管如此，中国货币体系并未因Paulson的来访发生变化。星期三，Paulson与吴副总理（中 国加入WTO谈判团一员）出席了一个会议，并宣布了未来每两年进行一次“中美经济对话”。而财政部的发言中未涉及人民币改革。
Even if the Chinese central bank does, as some expect, let the yuan strengthen more than previously anticipated, this will not be the panacea that many hope for. As Tyler Cowen, an economics professor at George Mason University, points out, China imports many of the components it assembles into finished products; a strengthening yuan will make these components cheaper, eroding some of the effect on export prices. Nor is China’s competitive advantage limited to a cheap currency. And although China is one of the big funders of America’s current-account deficit, it is certainly not alone. Unless Americans curb their appetite for imports bought with borrowed money—and start making more things other countries want to buy—the deficit will continue to be a problem. This is roughly what the Chinese government has been saying.
即 便中国央行如一些人期盼那样，将现有人民币汇率提高，也不能让他们的希望变成现实。乔治马赛大学的经济学教授Tyler指出，中国进口大量原件组装成成 品，强势的人民币会降低原件价格，在一定程度上降低出口价。但中国的优势并不仅限于低价货币，中国只是美国财政赤字购买者大头之一，他显然不是单独的。除 非美国能限制借钱进口的欲望，并且开始为更多国家制造商品，否则赤字仍不会改变。这是中国政府发言的大意所在。
A rising yuan will have some negative effects on the West, not limited to a shortage of cheap electronics. Cheap Chinese imports have kept a lid on inflation in many countries, letting central banks keep interest rates low without worrying about their economies overheating. As Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, has warned, once the yuan begins to strengthen, central banks will face higher inflationary pressures. With oil prices already pushing inflation to worrying levels, Mr Paulson may not be as eager as he seems for a rising yuan.
人 民币升值也会对西方不利，这不仅是平价电子产品短缺的问题。便宜的中国进口货抑制了通货膨胀，并使央行保持较低的利率，而不用担心经济过热。正如英国银行 的主管Mervyn King所警告的，一旦人民币升值，各国央行都必须面对更大的通货膨胀的压力。在原油价格把通货膨胀推到警戒线之际，Paulson对人民往币升值的渴 望，或非真心实意。
